Inside the Economic Playbook Shaping 2026
I want to walk through what I’m seeing in the economy right now - not from a political angle, and not from a Wall Street one - but in a way that reads beyond the headlines and shows how it will actually affect real life.
Because when the conversation gets too technical, most people either tune out…
or they blindly trust headlines that were written for clicks... not for understanding.
Neither helps.
So, let’s zoom out first.
The Big Picture
I think about the U.S. economy like driving on the expressway.
Everybody likes going faster. When traffic is moving, the ride feels easier.
Businesses hire. People spend. Confidence improves. Everyone is happy.
But anyone who has ever driven knows this simple truth:
The faster you go, the more risk starts creeping in.
At 55 miles per hour, you have room for error.
At 85 miles per hour, one small mistake becomes a big problem.
The economy works the same way.
Growth is the speed.
Inflation is the risk.
You can still drive… but the harder you push it, the less margin you have before something breaks.
And the job of policymakers - whether we agree with them or not - is to keep the economy moving forward without overheating the engine.
That’s why these 3 recent White House decisions make more sense when you view them as one playbook:
Make borrowing less painful without waiting on the Federal Reserve
Keep energy prices steady so inflation doesn’t spike
Plug obvious leaks in government spending instead of raising taxes
Each one matters on its own.
Together, they tell a very clear story.
Move #1: Making Borrowing Cheaper Without Waiting on the Fed
Housing isn’t the economy, but it’s one of the most important ways money actually moves through it.
When housing slows down, the ripple effect is immediate and very real:
Fewer people buy homes
Fewer people move (which slows down everything from furniture to appliances to home services)
Builders pull back
Contractors get fewer calls
A large slice of everyday economic activity goes quiet
That’s why mortgage rates matter so much. And right now, they’re still high enough to keep a lot of people on the sidelines.
Here is where the Federal Reserve fits into the puzzle (and where it doesn’t).
The Federal Reserve absolutely influences mortgage rates.
But it doesn’t control them the way most people think it does.
The Fed sets short-term interest rates. That shapes the overall rate environment and investor expectations, but it actually has little (and sometimes opposite) influence on long term mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates themselves are priced by the market - based on inflation expectations, bond yields, and most importantly: how much demand there is in the secondary mortgage market.
So when the Fed is hesitant to cut aggressively, it doesn’t mean mortgage rates can’t come down. It just means a different variable needs to be the focus.
That’s where a different lever comes into play.
Enter Federal National Mortgage Association (AKA Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).
Here’s a way to think about it that most people can relate to.
Imagine a 19 year old applying for a car loan.
On their own, the bank might approve them - but with a high interest rate - because the bank is risking their capital on a 19-year-old “kid.” Now imagine a parent steps in and says:
“If they ever miss a payment, I’ve got it covered. I’ll take the risk.”
What happens?
The bank gets a lot more comfortable.
They’re willing to extend more credit.
And they can offer better terms - not because they’re generous, but because they no longer carry the risk.
That’s essentially what Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac do in the mortgage market.
When they step in more aggressively, buying more mortgages in the secondary market, it reduces the risk lenders take when they issue new home loans. And when lenders feel more protected on the back end, they’re more willing to compete and extend loans on the front end.
That risk relief is what creates competitive pressure among lenders - pushing mortgage rates lower...
even if the Fed doesn’t cut rates.
This strategy targets mortgage rates directly and is much more powerful than Fed meetings or messaging - because it changes the plumbing of the housing finance system itself.
Why this matters in everyday life:
If mortgage rates drop, even modestly, the effects show up quickly:
More families qualify for homes
Refinancing becomes possible again
Transactions pick up
Home values stabilize instead of sliding
Confidence improves
And confidence matters, because the housing market is emotional as much as it is financial.
And here’s the catch: this plan works. That’s why they’re doing it.
but it isn’t free.
Easier borrowing brings more buyers, and more buyers bring higher prices.
This feels good at first… but then expensive later.
That’s the expressway problem:
picking up speed feels good - until the gauges on the dash start flashing.
So the next question is simple: how do you pick up speed without increasing the odds of a wreck?
Move #2: Keeping Energy Prices Steady to Control the Heat
Energy prices affect almost everything:
Gas
Food
Shipping
Travel
Manufacturing
When energy costs spike, inflation doesn’t creep in slowly - it shows up fast and everywhere.
The U.S. already produces a massive amount of oil.
When you add more control over Venezuelan oil production into the equation, overall supply pressure eases even further.
You don’t need to follow geopolitics to understand the impact.
More supply and more control = less pressure on prices.
When oil stays in the $50–$60 range, gas stays affordable.
When gas stays affordable, shipping costs stay down.
When shipping costs stay down, your Target receipt stays reasonable.
When receipts stay reasonable, inflation stays calmer.
This matters because it offsets the inflation risk that comes from easier borrowing.
In expressway terms:
you’re going faster, but the engine isn’t overheating.
Why Housing and Energy Are Being Used Together
This is the part most people miss.
Lower borrowing costs tend to push inflation up.
Lower energy costs tend to push inflation down.
One counterbalances the other.
It’s how you increase speed without blowing a tire.
Move #3: Plugging Leaks Instead of Raising Taxes
This part isn’t flashy, but it’s critical.
There has been significant fraud in government assistance programs over the last several years. It’s not that it suddenly started - it’s that better data matching and higher scrutiny are exposing patterns that used to slip through the cracks.
In many cases, the money is wired out of the country before anyone can stop it.
Instead of spending years trying to prosecute every case one by one, the government is taking a more immediate step, and doing something simpler:
they’re slowing or stopping suspicious money from leaving in the first place.
Think about a house with a water leak.
You don’t stand around debating who caused it.
You don’t wait months for a full inspection report.
You turn off the valve.
That’s what this is.
By tightening reporting and monitoring certain transfers, the bleeding slows immediately - without cutting benefits for people who actually need them.
Why this matters to the overall plan
This isn’t just about fraud. It’s about credibility.
Government debt is already enormous.
Interest costs are becoming a real problem.
And every wasted dollar today is borrowed from the future.
As we talked about earlier, interest rates aren’t just set by the Fed. They’re heavily influenced by the bond market - and the bond market is constantly making judgments about future inflation.
One of the biggest drivers of inflation expectations is confidence in fiscal discipline. When investors believe debt will keep growing unchecked, they demand higher yields to compensate for that risk. In simple terms, this equates to higher borrowing costs across the economy.
Plugging obvious leaks doesn’t solve the debt problem by itself - but it sends a signal.
It says the system is at least trying to control what it can control.
And that matters, because lowering future inflation expectations helps keep long-term interest rates from drifting higher while the economy is trying to move faster.
In expressway terms, this isn’t about speed.
It’s about reducing drag.
And reducing drag is how you go faster without the engine having to work harder to get there.
The Bigger Bet Being Made
If you zoom out far enough, this whole approach is basically about buying time.
The government is trying to keep the economy moving:
keep people spending, keep jobs strong, keep confidence intact - while also keeping inflation from flaring back up.
That’s why the levers we just walked through matter: cheaper borrowing, stable energy, tighter spending. They’re all ways to keep momentum without letting the system run out of control.
But that’s the short-term game.
The longer-term bet is that we’re heading into a period where productivity finally catches up.
In plain English: the hope is that technology - especially AI - helps people and businesses produce more value with less time, less labor, and less waste. When productivity rises, you can have economic growth without everything getting more expensive at the same pace.
That’s how you get growth without everyday life getting more expensive along the way.
Now, I’m not pretending this will be smooth.
New technology doesn’t roll out evenly. It creates winners and losers.
It disrupts industries before it stabilizes them.
And markets have a habit of getting ahead of themselves - pricing the future before the future actually arrives.
So yes, there will be volatility. There will be hype cycles. There will be corrections.
But if the productivity story is real - and I believe it is - then the end goal is simple:
Keep the economy steady long enough for the productivity wave to hit - because when productivity rises, you can grow the pie without raising the price tag.
In expressway terms, today’s levers are about staying in control at higher speed.
The AI bet is about upgrading the engine so higher speed becomes sustainable.
Final Thoughts
At Grand Vision Family Office, we don’t make decisions based on headlines. We pay attention to how the system is actually behaving.
Big economic shifts rarely come with flashing warning lights.
They happen quietly… and then suddenly.
Most people don’t lose because they were stupid or careless.
They lose because they were watching the noise instead of the signals.
This isn’t about predicting the future.
It’s about paying attention so you don’t get surprised.
When you can see that clearly, you don’t allow fear or hype to drive decisions.
You simply need perspective... and the discipline to stick to it.
—Mike Neubauer
Founding Partner, Grand Vision Family Office
P.S. If you’d like to learn more about me, and
why I take the time to write these articles,
I shared a bit more on this page:
GrandVision.co/why-i-write