Navigating the Big Cycle: Understanding the Breakdown of the U.S. Dollar

(Part 1 of a multi-article series on how America will do whatever it takes to protect the dollar—and why you need to understand what that means.)

Let me start with this: There are only one thing in this world that the United States government will protect at all costs. The U.S. dollar.

The average American doesn’t realize this, but when you peel back the layers of policy decisions, trade negotiations, tariffs, monetary maneuvers, and even military presence, you’ll notice one common thread: protect the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.

And while the headlines are currently obsessed with tariffs, inflation, and job reports, most of them are missing the far bigger picture. That’s why I’m writing this series.

Over the next few articles, we’re going to unpack what’s really happening behind the curtain. We’ll look at Ray Dalio’s predictions, what history tells us about these kinds of global shakeups, and why the U.S. will likely use every tool in the playbook (and then some) to keep the dollar sitting on the throne. We’ll also talk about Scott Bessent, arguably one of the most brilliant macro strategists alive, and why his fingerprints might already be on what’s unfolding.

But before we get too deep, I want to give a quick shoutout to someone who first opened my eyes to this idea in a big way: John Pennington Jr, a former fund manager who managed over $1 billion and authored Dollars, Gold, and Bitcoin. His presentation and new book helped me see clearly what very few people talk about:

The U.S. will do whatever it takes to protect the dollar. Once you understand that single idea, everything else starts to make sense.

To start, let’s get clear on what’s breaking down, and why.

Ray Dalio Isn’t a Blogger with an Opinion—He’s a Data Historian with a Track Record

Ray Dalio isn’t just another wealthy finance guy with a microphone. He’s the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund on the planet, and he’s made a career out of connecting dots most people don’t even see on the page.

Dalio studies economic cycles the way historians study world wars. His thesis is simple but powerful: history repeats itself in predictable patterns, especially when money, debt, and power are involved. According to him, we’re now deep into a once-in-a-lifetime shift he calls “The Big Cycle,” and the foundations of our current system are starting to crack.

He said it plainly this year: “We’re in something worse than a recession. We’re in the breakdown of the monetary, political, and geopolitical order that has governed the post-World War II era.”

That might sound dramatic. But when you break it down, it’s hard to argue with the facts.

Here is what Dalio sees playing out:

The Big Cycle: It’s Happened Before — It’s Just Our Turn Now

Every dominant world power eventually reaches a point where the bills come due.

Take a trip anywhere in the world, and you’ll see the remnants of past empires (Spanish cathedrals in Latin America, British courthouses in Africa, Dutch ports across Southeast Asia). These weren’t just tourist attractions. They were signs of who held power, who controlled trade, and most importantly, who controlled the money.

The British Empire once ruled the seas and the pound sterling was the world’s reserve currency. Before that, it was the Dutch, with the guilder. Before them, the Spanish empire dominated global trade.

Each lasted roughly 75 to 100 years at the top before reality hit: too much debt, too many enemies, and too much internal division.

They all thought they’d stay on top forever. But history had other plans.

Now, it’s America’s turn at the top of the cycle, and we’d be wise to understand that cycles, by definition, repeat.

We’re now 80 years into the American-led world order that started after WWII. And here’s what we’re facing:

1. A Monetary System That’s Built on Borrowed Time
   The U.S. is carrying a national debt of $37+ trillion. We’re adding to it at a rate of $1 trillion every 100 days. That’s not sustainable, and Dalio warns we’re headed for a “financial heart attack” unless something changes fast.

2. A Political System That’s Eating Itself
   The left and right aren’t just disagreeing, they’re actively trying to destroy each other. The government is gridlocked, and populism is rising on both sides. History tells us this is exactly when democracies break down.

3. A Geopolitical System That’s Going from Partners to Opponents
   Global cooperation is being replaced by economic warfare. Tariffs, sanctions, capital restrictions, it’s all over the headlines right now. And the most important front in that war? The fight to keep the dollar as the world’s money.

Why the Dollar Matters More Than You Think

The average person hears “reserve currency” and tunes out. But let me break it down in simple terms.

Imagine you’re playing a global game of Monopoly, and America is the banker. We print the money, everyone trades in our currency, and when other countries want to park their wealth, they do it in U.S. Treasuries.

This gives us a cheat code. We can run deficits that would bankrupt any other country. We can spend money without immediately devaluing our currency. We can impose sanctions and watch them bite.

But if we lose that status… the game changes. Instantly.

We’d see:

• Higher borrowing costs (because investors would demand more return for the risk),

• Inflation from a weaker dollar,

• Less global influence, and

• A complete re-pricing of what “safe” assets really are.

That’s why every major policy, whether it’s the Fed managing interest rates, the Treasury adjusting tariffs, or the military dropping bombs... It is all secretly playing defense for the dollar.

So What’s the Latest?

Here’s what you need to know about what’s happening right now:

• Dalio is ringing alarm bells. He’s urging investors to expect asset re-pricing and currency debasement. In his words, “Most people are blind to the magnitude of the changes happening. They’re looking at the symptoms, not the disease.”

• The U.S. is trying to quietly fix the math. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who we’ll dive into in Article 2, is orchestrating a chess match of policies aimed at keeping long-term interest rates down and bringing in hundreds of billions in tariff revenue to help fill the gap. This isn’t just trade policy, it’s monetary survival.

• The Fed may step in with Yield Curve Control. If bond yields start to run away, the Fed might cap rates by buying bonds, essentially printing more money to avoid a debt meltdown. That would protect the government’s ability to borrow, but it would also light an even bigger fire under inflation.

All of these moves point to one thing: this isn’t about short-term politics, it’s about long-term survival. America must protect the dollar. Period.

Why This Matters to You

Even if you don’t run a hedge fund or follow macroeconomics, this matters more than you realize. Because when these tectonic shifts occur, everything gets repriced.

Real estate. Commodities. Stocks. The value of your savings. The terms of your debt.

This is where we help our Grand Vision Family Office members navigate the fog. We aren’t trying to predict the headlines, we’re preparing for the underlying drivers. When you understand the Big Cycle, you stop playing checkers in a chess game.

Where We Go From Here

In the next article, we’ll take a closer look at Scott Bessent, a man who has quietly shaped some of the most important global financial strategies over the past two decades. If his name didn’t ring a bell before he joined the new administration, you’re not alone. That’s how he’s always operated, powerfully effective, and intentionally under the radar.

But he’s playing a key role right now in ensuring that the United States doesn’t fumble its position in the new world order. And based on his track record… that’s a story worth telling.

Stay tuned.

—Mike Neubauer
Founding Member, Grand Vision Family Office